ESC Etc.

As per usual, these are my pre-rehearsal musings based on absolutely nothing (although last year I did pretty decently on these, so there’s that). The overall vibe, in a year that has fans rather divided in terms of overall strength/quality, is that this is the stronger of the two semis, and considering the fact that two of my Top 3 songs are going to be performing here, I would have to agree. As per usual, rehearsals will probably change everything, so this is kind of the last time I can be delulu and get away with it!

Defintely Yes

Sweden

– KAJ has turned into such an overwhelming favorite to win the whole thing (we’re not at Loreen-levels of favoritism in the odds yet, but close enough) that it’s making it actually hard for me to decide who will be sharing the crumbs here (Loreen did perform in the same semi as the eventual 2nd and 3rd place finishers, whereas everyone else here is light years behind). Sweden is going to win this semi handily.

Likely Yes

Poland, Estonia, Ukraine, Norway, Belgium, Albania, Netherlands, Cyprus

– Poland is the only female solo act here – which should count for something – and we’re expecting big staging, so I’m feeling pretty confident. Albania, Belgium, Norway, and the Netherlands are big fan faves that will be deliverely professionally (Red Sebastian’s staging at the Belgian national final sealed the deal for me). Ukraine…there seems to be very little enthusiasm behind the song this year, but they have a perfect 100% qualification record, they’re Ukraine, and they’re just good at Eurovision. I would expect Estonia to do about as well as Finland last year. Cyprus is the show closer, and we’re being told that their staging is incredibly ambitious and spectacular, so at this point they seem like a safe bet.

Borderline Yes

Iceland, Slovenia, San Marino

– I feel as though San Marino is probably the safest here, since the song has gained some traction after Sanremo, but they tend to be overlooked more often than not, and DJ-centric performances have flamed out at ESC before. Iceland is massively helped by being the show opener, and while the song seems to be somewhat underrated, it is undeniably a joy bomb. Slovenia is kind of a sneaky wine mom song – it’s sad in an easy listening kinda way, and he’s handsome yet approachable. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened.

Borderline No

Portugal

– I don’t think it’s impossible – it’s a quality package and a very unoffensive one at that. It might just be too uneventful for a televote-only semifinal, though.

Likely No

Azerbaijan

– This isn’t a bad song, but it’s probably not strong enough to jump-start Azerbaijan‘s redeeming narrative.

Definitely No

Croatia

– I don’t see this happening even with a great delivery/staging package.