ESC Etc.

Possibly the least exciting semifinal of the two semis – depending on where your allegiance lies – but with a fairly high ceiling considering that two winner contenders are here and both seem to have delivered excellent staging packages. And yes, I’m predicting a couple of upsets because I love mess.

Definitely Yes

Austria Malta Finland

– Any one of these entries could win the semifinal, even though JJ is slightly less likely to just based on the 100% televote system. It wouldn’t surprise me if this was the actual Top 3 here, and Finland as the show closer is a huge boost for someone who should be up there with Sweden as one of the prohibitive faves. I will not entertain any doubts about Malta when the whole stadium will be screaming KANT!!!! at the top of their lungs throughout her performance.

Likely Yes

Australia Armenia Greece

– So hear me out: Armenia is in. Accept it. Embrace it. The song by itself might not be anything special, but Parg sells the hell out of it, and the staging concept is absolutely brilliant for what it is. Australia I could see doing really well here, but the chaotic energy of Go_Jo and his whole act might be a bit exhausting for some. Greece is quality even though they don’t seem to have elevated their staging that much, but it still looks polished, and Klavdia sounds amazing.

Borderline Yes

Ireland Latvia Denmark Luxembourg

– Under the current system, I will always go for the fun pop bangers and the unique ethno acts to round out my predictions, even when the odds are suggesting otherwise. Latvia should be safe based on quality/performance/genre, and the fact that there’s nothing else quite like it. The other three are just colorful, entertaining, well performed (I mean, have you heard Sissal SING) entries that are more likely to stay with casual viewers, although none of them are reinventing the wheel.

Borderline No

Montenegro Lithuania Czechia

– OK. I know that Czechia is one of the big faves in the bubble. BUT. It’s giving me the same vibes I was getting from Belgium last year – an entry that my gut was telling me would not advance but I still predicted to in spite of myself, and this time around I’d rather be wrong than ignore said vibes. Lithuania is definitely quality, but the whole act is just so dour and unforgiving and beige, and Katarsis really haven’t done much to connect with the fanbase in Basel and generate momentum. Montenegro feels like a non-descript Balkan ballad performed by an excellent artist who was styled to look like she’s trying to get out of bed after a rough night out.

Likely No

Serbia

– I feel like the wine moms might like this one, and Princ is handsome and talented. That said, the song does sound dated and really uneventful, and performing right before Finland feels like the final nail in the coffin.

Definitely No

Georgia

Yeah no. Who is this for?