ESC Etc.

More predictions based on absolutely nothing but who cares! It’s fun!

Definitely Yes
Switzerland, Netherlands, Armenia

– Netherlands is the presumptive favorite to win this televote-only semifinal, but the song has performed surprisingly poorly in the OGAE poll, suggesting that maybe the support isn’t all there. In any case, Joost and Nemo are surefire qualifiers, and I would expect both to comfortably land in the Top 10 in the final, if not higher. Ladaniva is a bit of a dark horse in my estimation, and the song is also bound to perform really well here especially if they ace the staging.

Likely Yes
Greece, Belgium, Estonia, Israel, Norway

– Greece is a bit of a fan fave, but their staging concept based on one continuous uninterrupted shot has me somewhat worried. Belgium is also very popular, but their track record with staging is spotty at best, and Mustii‘s vocals at the pre-parties were a bit concerning (I know sound mixing is generally all over the place at these events, but other acts did sound consistently great). Estonia and Norway are two other dark horses that haven’t quite generated the hype I had anticipated, but both songs are undeniably televote-friendly.

Borderline Yes
Austria, Georgia

– Tough call. This semifinal feels very fluid and a lot will come down to execution, and I think these two acts might have the edge if everything comes together the way it’s supposed to. Kaleen’s track is phenomenal and I expect a great show, but we’ve seen very little in the pre-parties and there seem to be some concerns related to her vocals + Austria’s track record with staging as of late. On the other hand, I expect Nutsa to deliver an excellent performance and staging package, but the song hasn’t exactly made waves.

Borderline No
Malta, Denmark, Latvia

– Malta and Denmark are both relying on staging to carry two tracks that are fine but not particularly remarkable, and both staging packages are very effective (if you can forgive the fact that Loop looks like a SloMo less effective copy/paste job). Ultimately, my worry is that in such a strong year a great stage show might not be enough to make up for a song that is just fine. Latvia is just a hard sell – a really dry, punishing, slow ballad that doesn’t seem to have found a clear aesthetic/visual so far. I do love Dons, and he delivers the track as well as anyone could, but the notion that “if you’re looking for a slow/more serious moment, this is it” doesn’t really work in my opinion because at ESC no one is looking for a slow/more serious moment…the moment finds you. And I don’t know that Hollow is a moment.

Likely No
Czechia, Albania, San Marino

– I don’t think these are dead in the water, but they have the biggest hurdles to overcome. Czechia hasn’t been able to overcome the impression left by that catastrophic live performance at the national final, and while some do like the studio cut of the track, that is not what we’ll be getting on stage. Albania‘s revamp was widely panned, and while Besa is a compelling performer, this could easily flatline even if Albania does generally receive some support from the Balkans. Megara is weighed down by San Marino‘s reputation (or lack thereof) more than anything else – the track is solid, they’re going to give a great show, and Spain will be voting in this semifinal. Will it be enough?

Definitely No
n/a