ESC Etc.

Rehearsals kick off in two days, so it’s time to commit some official predictions to the ether. Granted – we haven’t seen any of these staged yet (although we have seen a number of these performed in their respectine national finals and/or pre-parties), but last year I went 19/20 in terms of predictions over the two semifinals combined before rehearsals, so I must be doing something right, no?

As you’ll see, I’m ranking these songs based on degrees of qualification likelihood – it makes it a bit easier to offer a visual breakdown of the line-up and to organize my thoughts accordingly.

Definitely Yes
Ukraine, Croatia

– Not a lot to say here really. Ukraine has a perfect 100% qualification record since the introduction of the semifinals, and while this streak might break at some point, this won’t be the year. Croatia is one of the overwhelming favorites for the win, and they could easily take this semifinal.

Likely Yes
Lithuania

– I don’t foresee Lithuania having issues advancing, as the song is a huge fan favorite, but we’ve unexpectedly lost a few bops in the past. Count them in.

Borderline Yes
Serbia, Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg

– It gets a bit thorny here. Serbia, Ireland, and Poland should have enough visual appeal on stage to really pop in spite of dubious running order slotting and/or concern related to mainstream appeal in terms of sound or production, but they’ve had a poor showing in the annual OGAE poll so far. Slovenia doesn’t sound like anything else in the contest, and I expect great staging to go with a flawless vocal performance, but I’m concerned that there might not be enough enthusiasm behind it at this point. Australia and Portugal got a pretty solid running order, but comparisons to past entries from these two countries haven’t been overwhelmingly positive. Luxembourg should advance as the show closer, but the song is weak in terms of competitiveness.

Borderline No
Cyprus, Finland, Azerbaijan

– Finland‘s standing in the competition is entirely predicated upon televote popularity, and this entry is yet to receive any votes from OGAE, which to me is a very concerning sign that others might also not be in on the joke. Cyprus strikes me as repeat of Denmark last year – a young performer opening the show with a pop song that ultimately fails to register. Azerbaijan is on the cusp, and I do think the track is televote-friendly to some extent, but we haven’t seen this act live yet, and the fandom seems to have turned their attention elsewhere in the meantime.

Likely No
Iceland, Moldova

– You best best believe I will be voting for mama Hera and mama Natalia in this semifinal, but the truth is that neither track has managed to build any momentum going so far. I expect both to be performed flawlessly, which should definitely help, but there are concerns that it might still not be enough to overcome a fundamental lack of popularity in a televote-only scenario.

Definitely No
n/a