ESC Etc.

Biggest winners: Austria, Armenia, Norway, Netherlands

Biggest losers: Albania, Greece, Latvia, Israel

Can we say we have two semifinals of death this year? I confidently believe we can. ESC 2024 is such a competitive year, we will be losing a couple of great songs from each semi no matter how we spin it, and it almost feel as though the running order was engineered to contain the bleeding as much as possible especially in this semifinal, which is a bit more open (and populated). Same ground rules apply!

Malta wouldn’t have necessarily been my pick to open this semi, and I don’t think they were widely expected to, but it makes sense as a choice in keeping with the tendency to pick radio-fiendly pop entries to set the tone right from the get-go. I do expect this song to get good staging, and I’m in the camp that supports the revamp (they fixed some of the awkwardness in the chord progression, and there’s just more song in there now) but Sarah is not a big favorite in the odds, so I’m a bit concerned she might not be able to take full advantage of this type of exposure. Albania got once again placed in the #2 slot of death and…it makes sense? This is conversely one revamp that was generally very poorly received to further sink the chances of a track that didn’t feel particularly competitive to begin with, and this might signal that the producers don’t have a lot of faith in it, either. Greece got a bit played, too – Marina is currently in the Top 10 on both MESC and in the odds, so she should be fine regardless, but this isn’t really great exposure especially for an entry that has been teasing really challenging and impressive staging ideas. Switzerland, as one of the faves, is also slated a bit early in the running order and immediately followed by Czechia, making for a somewhat odd and awkward sonic transition from one track to the next. Having a strong lead-in should in theory be a bit of a boost, but these two songs/acts share so little in common that I’m not sure this will really help Aiko‘s already very precarious case. France is next, and we won’t be able to vote for it, but it does set up Austria quite nicely – two big fan faves in two completely different musical voices after (I’m assuming) a commercial break is a great reset. I do think Kaleen would have made for the best/most logical show opener here (“WE WILL RAVE!”) but she’s much better served here, to be honest. Denmark and Armenia close out the first half of the semi, and I think both will benefit from it. I’d be shocked if the latter failed to advance at this point, and while I’m still on the fence about Saba, there is a really striking staging concept in support of her song that will get noticed here.

Latvia is opening the second half, and I’m honestly not sure what Dons can do at this point to really move this track other than continue performing it in a sleeveless top. Slotting such a muted, bleak, and punishing ballad in this running order was always going to be a pretty rough task, and I think that Spain and San Marino immediately following both with an energetic, distinctive, and colorful staging concept won’t really help, either. That said, I do feel like Megara is in a good spot – we can’t vote for Nebulossa, but Spanish fans are allowed to vote for their other homegrown act, and I’m sensing they will. Georgia is a bit of an odd duck here – the other pop gals will have already performed at this point, so she might stand out, but staging will be key here to make sure people don’t just automatically move on to Belgium, who is much more of a fave with a more distinctive sound. I have faith that Mustii will be able to improve on his country’s spotty approach to good, meaningful staging, and at this point I would be really, really surprised if he didn’t advance. Estonia is in a good spot, too, and I would imagine they will be an audience fave so long as they’re able to bring some kind of cohesive, well-rehearsed narrative to the stage – the song is fun and the dance will be a moment, too. Italy is (alongside Croatia) the big fave to win the whole thing, and this is a great running order for them even though I’m sensing it wouldn’t have really mattered – seeing Angelina perform at the Madrid pre-party and the entire audience singing the whole song along just tells you how incredibly strong La Noia is. This isn’t great news for Israel, who might suffer from this immediate comparison and will also most likely have to prepare for an avalanche of booing and noise from the audience. Norway got slotted in penultimate place, which feels like a huge win for them – the track is already very popular and televote-friendly, and more people will be tuning in to watch Joost close the show at this point. Netherlands is perfectly placed here, and I think this sets them up to possibly win the whole semifinal – Europapa is a huge party banger and it’s performing exceptionally well on streaming. I do wonder if we will get the coda to the song performed on stage, and I actually think it would be a really meaningful closing note if we did.

Stay tuned for more rankings and predictions this week and don’t forget about the podcast! We will be reviewing each semifinal soon and WE HAVE OPINIONS.