ESC Etc.

Biggest winners: Croatia, Moldova, Portugal, Luxembourg

Biggest losers: Serbia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Finland

We finally have the running order for our 2024 ESC semis! I’m not going to lie – I love dissecting this stuff almost as much as I love dissecting the fandom’s conspiracy theories about it. Because…there are no conspiracies! All these producers care about is putting together a good, dynamic show and expediting the logistics of getting props on and off the stage as quickly and efficiently as possible. That isn’t to say the running order doesn’t matter at all – there are years of trends and patters that tell us some spots are better that others in securing a song’s place in the grand final, and that’s what we want to discuss in this post. Before we do that, though, we’d like to establish one important ground rule that will inform our analysis:

Strong songs will qualify from anywhere. Period. Both years Loreen competed, she performed in 11th place in her semi, a slot with one of the worst qualification rates in the last 15 years (roughly 39%), and she was just fine. Why? Because Euphoria and Tattoo would have qualified from anywhere. She could have performed in the parking lot the night before and she would have still advanced. That clear? Good!

Cyprus was widely predicted to open the semi, and we were all collectively right. Not a huge surprise – if the option is available, producers will tend to choose a radio-friendly (girl) bop to kick off the show (see also semi #2). While I do believe that opening the semifinal does give you somewhat of an advantage, you will just as quickly implode if you fail to deliver the goods (Ronela Hajati would still like to get a do-over, and even she would have still barely qualified in 10th had the semis been 100% televote back in 2022). In that sense, I’m somewhat concerned Liar might come short in terms of execution. Serbia and Lithuania are in a difficult spot. We know how dismal the qualification rates are for these two slots, but I would argue that it is mainly because they have been historically occupied by weak songs that looked even weaker following a strong show opener. 2024 is such a strong ESC year, however, that there is a case to be made that Serbia can occupy the death slot as a slow ballad and still 100% qualify, and I’m hopeful the same will apply to Luktelk, which has (not so) quietly become a fan favorite. I quite like Ireland and the UK back-to-back here, and I feel like this might help pad the former’s televote from people who will tune in to watch Olly without being able to vote for him. Ukraine, Poland, and Croatia are a phenomenal trio to close out the first half. Ukraine is, as per usual, a lock to advance, and Croatia‘s slot seems to suggest the producers know who the two big faves for the win are (the other one isn’t in this semi). Luna is comfortably sandwiched between these two powerhouses, and let’s be honest here…Poland has qualified with much less. MUCH less. As recently as last year.

Iceland opening the second half does make sense after Croatia (even if I’m assuming we’ll get a commercial break in between) to keep the joyful party vibes going, and as one of the least popular songs, Scared of Heights might benefit from some carryover effect. Germany and Slovenia following here does create a bit of a hurdle for Raiven – Always on the Run isn’t particularly popular and we can’t vote for it, so there’s a case to be made that this will be the main bathroom break for the semi, and people might miss some or all of her performance. Finland could’ve reasonably hoped to get selected as the show closer, but it was always unlikely to happen (for reasons we will shortly discuss). As is, it does feel a bit like they got dropped in no man’s land instead, with Moldova on their heels bringing a completely different mood to the table – at this stage, imagining these two countries back-to-back is actually a bit jarring. Sweden works as a nice reset here, probably after another commercial break, and it is followed by two songs that will definitely need all the extra exposure they can get (Azerbaijan more so than Australia, but still). As a ballad, Portugal was gifted with some prime real estate here – slower songs will always want to go as late as possible, and performing in penultimate place feels like a huge booster. Luxembourg closing the show really is a welcome back gift – this song is not a show closer, and it lacks the oomph that the Netherlands is bringing in the second semi – but this being the slot with the best overall qualification rate (88%) will definitely help. The EBU wants to retain as many countries as possible, and coming back after 30 years only to be immediately denied a spot in the final would honestly feel like a huge downer. I still think Fighter isn’t strong enough to make this a guarantee, but now it’s entirely on them to deliver and honor this huge present they were given.

Am I ready to lock in any predictions? ABSOLUTELY NOT! Things are about to get even messier with semi 2, so stay tuned!